Poll: Sanders holds 7-point lead in crucial California primary
Sen. Bernie SandersBernie SandersThe Hill’s 12:30 Report: Milley apologizes for church photo-op Harris grapples with defund the police movement amid veep talk Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness MORE (I-Vt.) leads the pack of Democratic presidential contenders in California, a Super Tuesday state that may prove to be one of the most crucial prizes of the party’s nominating contest, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday.
Sanders carries 24 percent support in California — a 7-point lead over his closest rival, former Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE, who registered 17 percent support in the state.
Former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg is running in third place with 13 percent support. He’s trailed by Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth WarrenWarren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases OVERNIGHT DEFENSE: Joint Chiefs chairman says he regrets participating in Trump photo-op | GOP senators back Joint Chiefs chairman who voiced regret over Trump photo-op | Senate panel approves 0B defense policy bill Trump on collision course with Congress over bases with Confederate names MORE (D-Mass.) and former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete ButtigiegPete ButtigiegScaled-back Pride Month poses challenges for fundraising, outreach Biden hopes to pick VP by Aug. 1 It’s as if a Trump operative infiltrated the Democratic primary process MORE at 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively.
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Sanders’s lead in the Golden State isn’t new. He’s led in public polls there for months. But the Monmouth poll is the latest sign that the Vermont senator is heading for a top finish in a Super Tuesday state that holds the key to more delegates than any other.
“California is the big prize on Super Tuesday. As the poll currently stands, it’s possible that only two or three candidates reach viability in any given congressional district,” Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said.
“That would enable Sanders to rack up half the delegates or more while only earning one-quarter of the total vote.”
In 2016, voters in California didn’t cast their ballots in the presidential primary until June. But the state moved in 2017 to leapfrog its way to Super Tuesday, the March 3 primary day when more than a third of delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be up for grabs.
A victory in California would be a massive windfall for Sanders, possibly helping him rack up a delegate lead that could be difficult for his rivals to overcome.
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In a memo issued this week, advisers to Bloomberg, who will first appear on primary ballots on Super Tuesday, warned that Sanders would be “all but impossible to defeat” after the March 3 nominating contests if the campaign’s current delegate projections hold.
In another boon to Sanders, the new poll shows him as the candidate most often cited as California voters’ second choice in the primary. Sixteen percent said that the Vermont senator is their No. 2 pick for the nomination, while 12 percent pointed to Warren and 10 percent to Biden.
Still, a plurality of likely Democratic primary voters in California — 45 percent — said that there’s still a possibility that they change their mind before they cast their ballots. Thirty-one percent said they were firmly decided on their choice, and another 10 percent said they have already voted early.
What’s more, there are still two nominating contests between now and Super Tuesday — the Nevada caucuses on Saturday and the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29 — that could help reshape the dynamics of the race before most voters in California cast their ballots.
The Monmouth University poll surveyed 408 likely California Democratic primary voters from Feb. 16-19. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percentage points.