Election Countdown: Violence casts cloud before midterms | Clinton opens door to 2020 | Trump calls Gillum a 'thief' | Dems worry about midterm message | Trump camp's midterm ad doesn't feature president

This is Election Countdown, The Hill’s newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We’d love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at [email protected] and Max at [email protected]. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please). Click here to sign up.

 

We’re 8 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 736 days until the 2020 elections.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

First there was a fatal shooting in a Kentucky grocery store.

Then, there was a series of explosive devices mailed to prominent Democrats and media outlets.

And then a mass shooting in a Pittsburgh-area synagogue that killed 11 people.

A string of violent incidents have cast a shadow over the 2018 midterm elections in the final days of the cycle, highlighting the intense divisions at play across the country. On one side, some Democrats place blame for the incidents squarely on President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE, arguing that his divisive and inflammatory rhetoric deepened political rifts and energized violent actors.

Meanwhile, Republicans have sought to downplay the president’s connection to the violence. In an interview aired Sunday, Vice President Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PencePence posts, deletes photo of Trump campaign staff without face masks, not social distancing Pence threatens to deploy military if Pennsylvania governor doesn’t quell looting Pence on Floyd: ‘No tolerance for racism’ in US MORE asserted that the only people responsible for the attacks were the men who carried them out, arguing that “people on both sides of the aisle use strong language about our political differences.”

The string of attacks came at a crucial time in American politics. Election Day is roughly a week away, and many voters across the country have already begun casting their ballots. Democrats are optimistic that they’ll win the 23 seats they need to retake control of the House, while Republicans are hoping to energize their base to stave off outsize losses and maintain their Senate majority.

ADVERTISEMENT

Whether politicians will tone down the rhetoric in the wake of the violence remains unclear. In Senate debates since the mail bombings, candidates decried the polarization and toxic rhetoric–before some started blaming one another for the state of U.S. politics.

Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said that it’s unlikely the divisiveness will cease.

“I don’t think anything’s going to cool tensions,” he told The Hill. “This, on both sides, has the feel of the apocalypse if they lose.”

 

State watch

Former President Jimmy Carter is urging Georgia secretary of state and GOP gubernatorial hopeful Brian Kemp to step aside and hand over oversight of the governor’s election to a “neutral authority.” “This would not address every concern, but it would be a sign that you recognize the importance of this key democratic principle and want to ensure the confidence of our citizens in the outcome,” Carter wrote in a letter to Kemp on Monday.

 

Trump chimed in on the Florida gubernatorial race on Monday, touting Republican Ron DeSantisRonald Dion DeSantisGOP tentatively decides on Jacksonville for site of convention DeSantis pushing to host Republican National Convention in Florida Florida bars and theaters to reopen starting Friday, DeSantis says MORE as “a great Congressman” who “will be a great Governor,” while deriding Democrat Andrew Gillum as a “thief.” The label appears to be a reference to the ongoing FBI investigation into suspected corruption in Tallahassee City Hall. Gillum has insisted that he’s not a target of that probe.

In Florida there is a choice between a Harvard/Yale educated man named @RonDeSantisFL who has been a great Congressman and will be a great Governor – and a Dem who is a thief and who is Mayor of poorly run Tallahassee, said to be one of the most corrupt cities in the Country!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 29, 2018

The tweet drew a response from Gillum, who said Trump was “howling because he’s weak.”

On Twitter there is a choice between having the courage to @ the person you are trash talking, or not. @realDonaldTrump is howling because he’s weak. Florida, go vote today. https://t.co/I8uOokptJA

— Andrew Gillum (@AndrewGillum) October 29, 2018

  

Senate showdown

Trump will make a fourth trip to Montana, a state he won by 20 points, to help Republican Matt Rosendale defeat Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterSenate confirms Trump’s watchdog for coronavirus funds Montana barrels toward blockbuster Senate fight The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip MORE (D), GOP sources tell The Hill’s Alexander Bolton, who’s been on the ground reporting from Big Sky Country. Donald Trump Jr.Don John TrumpTrump Jr. calls elderly supporter who was assaulted Trump Jr. hits Howard Stern for going ‘establishment,’ ‘acting like Hillary’ Trump Jr., GOP senator lash out at Facebook for taking down protest pages on stay-at-home orders MORE made headlines on Friday after calling Tester a “piece of garbage” for ending Navy Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson‘s nomination to lead the Department of Veteran Affairs earlier in the year.

 

Tester’s reelection bid has tightened in recent weeks, which Republicans link to the contentious fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett KavanaughBrett Michael KavanaughGOP senators urge Trump to back off Murkowski threat Judd Gregg: A government in free fall The 7 most anticipated Supreme Court decisions MORE‘s confirmation. Trump, who last campaigned for Rosendale on Oct. 18, is set to visit Bozeman, Montana’s tech hub, next weekend. Trump’s visit comes as Rosendale begs supporters for additional cash. Tester has raised more than four times as much money as Rosendale, according to recent FEC reports.

 

Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn Heitkamp70 former senators propose bipartisan caucus for incumbents Susan Collins set to play pivotal role in impeachment drama Pro-trade group launches media buy as Trump and Democrats near deal on new NAFTA MORE (D-N.D.) and Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerRepublicans prepare to punt on next COVID-19 relief bill GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police Trump tweets spark fresh headache for Republicans MORE (R-N.D.) duked it out in the second debate of the North Dakota Senate race on Friday, sparring on issues like Trump’s trade war with China and health care. The debate opened with calls for civility from both candidates. But it didn’t take long for the exchange to become heated, with health care bringing the most contentious back-and-forth. Here are four takeaways from The Hill’s Lisa Hagen.

 

Wave watch

Some Democrats are sounding the alarm over what they say is the party’s lack of a poignant message that will resonate with voters in 2018 and beyond, The Hill’s Amie Parnes and Mike Lillis report. “We haven’t had a real message since the last presidential election, so why change it now?” said Democratic strategist Chris Kofinis. “We had no message in 2016. We had no message in between. We have no message going into this election … You have to give people a reason to vote for you, not a reason to vote against someone else.”

ADVERTISEMENT

 

Democrats and Republicans are honing in on radically divergent messages in the final week of the midterms. Democrats are focusing on kitchen-table issues – health care and the minimum wage, among them – while Republicans are turning to the culture wars to sell themselves to voters, The Hill’s Mike Lillis and Scott Wong report. While some in the GOP have sought to push an economic message focusing on tax cuts and low unemployment, Trump is leaning hard into the same scorched-earth strategy that catapulted him to victory in 2016.

 

Survey says…

Sen. Bob MenendezRobert (Bob) MenendezGOP’s Obama-era probes fuel Senate angst Government watchdog: ‘No evidence’ Pompeo violated Hatch Act with Kansas trips No time to be selling arms to the Philippines MORE maintains a 5-point lead over GOP challenger Bob Hugin, a new Emerson College Poll finds. Seven percent of voters remain undecided. The poll comes as the Cook Political Report shifted Menendez’s reelection bid to “toss-up” last week. Menendez, whose campaign has been dogged by his past corruption case, has a negative favorability rating in the state. But Trump’s even greater unpopularity–and Hugin’s ties as a former Trump state campaign chair — may give the Democrat the support he needs to hold on.

 

Rep. Beto O’RourkeBeto O’RourkeBiden will help close out Texas Democrats’ virtual convention: report O’Rourke on Texas reopening: ‘Dangerous, dumb and weak’ Parties gear up for battle over Texas state House MORE‘s (D-Texas) prospects of unseating Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote The Hill’s Morning Report – Trump’s public standing sags after Floyd protests GOP senators introduce resolution opposing calls to defund the police MORE (R-Texas) are looking slightly brighter, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Cruz is still leading O’Rourke 51 percent to 46 percent. Still, that signals a tightening race. A Quinnipiac poll released earlier this month showed Cruz leading O’Rourke by 9 points – 54 percent to 45 percent.

ADVERTISEMENT

 

Rep. Dave Brat (R) and his Democratic opponent Abigail Spanberger are locked in a dead heat in their race to represent Virginia’s 7th District, according to a new survey from the Wason Center for Public Policy. Spanberger has a slight edge with 46 percent support, according to the poll, while Brat came in at 45 percent. That’s well within the poll’s 4.2 percent margin of error.

 

Democrats are gaining ground in the House generic ballot, leading Republicans by 17 points, according to a USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll. Fifty-seven percent of likely voters plan to cast their votes for Democrats, compared to 40 percent who say they’ll vote for Republicans. Monday’s poll shows Democrats with a 4-point gain since last week’s Los Angeles Times poll.

 

Paper chase

House Democrats looking to claim leadership posts after the midterms are pouring money into helping vulnerable incumbents and first-time candidates challenging Republicans in key districts, The Hill’s Mike Lillis reports. Rep. Katherine ClarkKatherine Marlea ClarkHouse pushes back schedule to pass spending bills Gun control group rolls out House endorsements Pelosi scrambles to secure quick passage of coronavirus aid MORE (D-Mass.), for example, has given more than $3.3 million in an effort to boost Democrats. She’s vying for the vice-chairmanship being vacated by Rep. Linda Sánchez (D-Calif.), who’s looking to move up to caucus chair.

Click Here: Putters

 

Trump‘s campaign is out with a new $6 million ad buy, touting the president’s economic record ahead of Election Day. Oddly enough, the 60-second spot doesn’t feature Trump at all. Instead, it plays a series of news clips lamenting slow economic growth before the real estate mogul took office. It then switches gears and touts the success of Trump’s economic agenda.

 

What we’re watching for

Campaign trail:

–Oct. 30: Vice President Joe BidenJoe BidenHillicon Valley: Biden calls on Facebook to change political speech rules | Dems demand hearings after Georgia election chaos | Microsoft stops selling facial recognition tech to police Trump finalizing executive order calling on police to use ‘force with compassion’ The Hill’s Campaign Report: Biden campaign goes on offensive against Facebook MORE will campaign in Cedar Rapids, Iowa with state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, the Democrat running against GOP Rep. Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District.

–Oct. 31: Biden will be in Bridgeton, Mo. for Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillMissouri county issues travel advisory for Lake of the Ozarks after Memorial Day parties Senate faces protracted floor fight over judges amid pandemic safety concerns Amash on eyeing presidential bid: ‘Millions of Americans’ want someone other than Trump, Biden MORE (D).

–Nov. 1: Biden will be in Fargo, N.D. for Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D).

–Nov. 2: Obama will campaign for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams in Atlanta, Ga. He’ll also be stumping for Gillum in Miami.

Trump rallies: (All times in ET)

–Oct. 31 in Fort Myers, Fla. at 7 p.m.

–Nov. 1 in Columbia, Mo. at 7:30 p.m.

–Nov. 2 in Huntington, W. Va. at 4 p.m.

–Nov. 3 in Pensacola, Fla. at 7:30 p.m.

Debates:

–Oct. 30: Indiana Senate debate

–Nov. 1: West Virginia Senate debate

–Nov. 4: Georgia gubernatorial debate

 

Coming to a TV near you

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R) is out with a new ad questioning whether Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonNASA, SpaceX and the private-public partnership that caused the flight of the Crew Dragon Lobbying world The most expensive congressional races of the last decade MORE (D-Fla.) took an illegal campaign contribution when he sold a Virginia house to a company linked to Lebanese business mogul (and the country’s current president) Rafic Hariri for more than its market value. “Was it an illegal campaign contribution disguised as a real estate deal?” a narrator asks in the ad. “That’s corruption, Washington style.”

 

Race for the White House

Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonWhite House accuses Biden of pushing ‘conspiracy theories’ with Trump election claim Biden courts younger voters — who have been a weakness Trayvon Martin’s mother Sybrina Fulton qualifies to run for county commissioner in Florida MORE acknowledged that she’d “like to be president,” stoking speculation that she could mount a third bid for the White House. But she said she won’t consider the possibility of a run until after the midterms. Longtime Clinton aide Philippe Reines told Politico earlier this month that the chance Clinton will run is “somewhere between highly unlikely and zero, but it’s not zero.”

 

Lara Trump, Trump’s daughter-in-law and a senior adviser to his 2020 campaign, told The Hill’s Reid Wilson in an interview last week that Trump will not take responsibility for GOP losses in the midterms. “It’s hard to translate excitement for one candidate to another. I don’t think it’s a referendum on the president directly if Republicans do not hold their seat or they lose a seat.”