Do Republican Defections Spell the End of the Obamacare Repeal?

Despite their dogged pursuit of an Obamacare repeal, Republican leaders may no longer have the votes to dismantle the law without a viable replacement—and may have blown their chance of destroying President Barack Obama’s healthcare plan altogether.

Two dozen Senate Democrats took part in a five-hour “talkathon” into the early hours of Tuesday, protesting the effort to dismantle the Affordable Care Act (ACA), summarized by Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) as a plan to “repeal and run,” which could leave up to 20 million Americans without health insurance.

And while the Democrats see the Obamacare debate as their “first big fight against the Republican majority and the Trump majority,” as minority leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) put it, a growing number of Republicans are now also voicing concern ahead of the vote.

“Something big is happening in the Senate right now,” New York Magazine‘s Jonathan Chait wrote late Monday. “The Republican plan, affirmed again today by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is facing dire peril from Republican defections. Republicans need a House majority, 50 Senate votes, and soon-to-be President Trump to pass repeal and delay. If Republicans lose three Senate votes, that drops them to 49, and repeal and delay cannot pass.”

Currently, the vote on the shell budget resolution that lays out the guidelines for repealing the ACA is scheduled to take place Friday. But five Republican senators—Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), Rob Portman (R-Ohio), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Bill Cassidy (R-La.), and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska)—have introduced an amendment to “extend the deadline for budget reconciliation instructions until March 3, 2017, and ensure a responsible process for replacing President Obama’s health care law as quickly as possible.”

Throwing more cold water on the effort, members of the Tea Party-backed House Freedom Caucus are also calling for the party to “slow down the process so that we can understand a little bit more of the specifics, the timetable, replacement votes, reconciliation instructions, etc.,” as chairman Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C) told reporters late Monday.

What’s more, Chait notes, “numerous Republican governors—who don’t have a vote on it but can nonetheless exert pressure—are lobbying Washington Republicans to protect the parts of the law that their states rely on.”