CBS Poll: Women give Dems a boost in race for House control

A new poll from CBS News Battleground Tracker shows Democrats winning 222 seats in the House if the midterm elections were today, in large part because of party support among women.

The tracker, released Sunday, marks a three-seat increase from the tracker’s estimates earlier this summer. Women told CBS that they plan to vote for a Democratic candidate by a 12-point margin. 

Though Democratic and Republican women say they would vote overwhelmingly for their respective parties, independents said they leaned toward Democrats, giving them a slight edge in the upcoming election.

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That lean, according to the tracker, seems to be driven partially by opposition to President TrumpDonald John TrumpSenate advances public lands bill in late-night vote Warren, Democrats urge Trump to back down from veto threat over changing Confederate-named bases Esper orders ‘After Action Review’ of National Guard’s role in protests MORE among Democrats and independents. 

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Thirty-nine percent of women surveyed say they oppose the president, while 30 percent said they support Trump, though responses tended to fall along partisan lines.

Women who have a negative view of the president said they were less likely to compromise when it comes to supporting a candidate who shares their views of Trump compared with women who said they have positive views of Trump. Seventy percent of women who had negative views of the president said they would only back candidates who share their opinions of the president. 

According to the tracker, 89 percent of women voters polled said their 2018 vote is at least as important as a presidential election, while one in five respondents said it is even more important. Democratic and independent women are more than twice as likely to view the midterms with urgency than female Republicans, CBS found.

Twenty-nine percent of Democratic women and 21 percent of independent women said the midterms were at least as important as a presidential election, while 11 percent of Republicans said they thought the same. 

Still, CBS News emphasized that the Republicans may hold the House. Twenty-six percent of women said they remained undecided as to whether they will support a Democrat or Republican this November.

The tracker polled 4,989 registered voters in 57 competitive congressional districts between Aug. 10–16. It has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.